Weekly Update, 20 May
Context, forecast misses, the aFRR- TSO footprint, frequency, border clock.
No ‘extreme’ events this week. DA, ID-AEP and SPARX cooled after the early-May drama, but 15 and 19 May had significant downward aFRR calls. We look at forecast misses, TSO aFRR activation footprint, frequency and a “border clock.”
Introductory Reflection
The New York Times yesterday had a great piece on Dwarkesh Patel and his podcast. He is a well-connected AI-optimist, each episode is deeply researched, each a starting point for further reference and exploration. Material like this is vital, I think, to help us reflect on the rapid changes.
I worry sometimes about my thinking habits in the age of AI. Where is the boundary between the work that the AI can help with and a sense of ‘artful pursuit’ that provides orientation, meaning, a golden-thread?
The main challenge, I believe, is to train and maintain attention. “Attention is all you need” keeps re-occurring to me as a motto, suitably appropriated out of its original context, as I find myself snapping out of spells of distraction.
Our attention here is focused on exploring the energy industry with the new technology, to build understanding, connection, conversation with increasing momentum. My aim is to share a combination of energy-related content (“the what”) combined with thoughts on the machinery used to develop it (“the how”). The weekly market updates are a litmus test of progress.
Today’s market update is once again Germany focused but includes cross-border analysis. International exploration will develop step-by-step… The content was generated entirely by the ‘Stratnergy Exploration Engine’ but the process involves a number of ‘tuning’ and ‘editing’ passes. (One of the hardest problems for AI is to figure out what problem to solve, and which line of enquiry to pursue.) Improvements in these updates require a significant amount of work, choice, and an increasing budget threshold for token ‘intelligence.’
“The idea becomes a machine that makes the art.” — Sol LeWitt
Stratnergy Market Update
No extreme price event this week. That is the starting point. DA, ID-AEP and SPARX all cooled after the early-May drama, but 15 and 19 May still brought sizeable downward balancing calls. We start with context (the familiar boxplots), then the forecast misses, the aFRR- TSO footprint, frequency, and finally the border clock.
From 13 to 19 May, the day-ahead average was about EUR 106.7/MWh. The average daily high-low range was about EUR 151.6/MWh, down from about EUR 210.8/MWh over 1-12 May. The lowest quarter-hour in the recent window was only EUR -2.33/MWh.
The longer history shows how quiet the price layer became after early May.
ID-AEP and SPARX also calmed. Recent SPARX averaged about EUR 214.2/MWh, versus about EUR 363.4/MWh over 1-12 May. The largest recent SPARX was EUR 360.5/MWh.
Capacity prices came down from the early-May peaks. FCR 12-16 averaged about EUR 160.3/MW/4h, down from about EUR 250.0/MW/4h over 1-12 May. aFRR- 12-16 averaged about EUR 243.1/MW/4h equivalent.
aFRR- activation was high on 2026-05-15: about 2,995 MWh; 2026-05-19: about 2,966 MWh. These were not extreme-price days. The system can still need significant downward correction when the visible price readout looks ordinary.
Since the start of 2025, 15 May ranks 33 of 504 operational aFRR- days by total activation, and 19 May ranks 34. The pair separates two things that are often blended together: balancing activity and realised price stress.
