The white face of the winter day came suddenly on

Time Regained, Developing our Lookback Framework.

We’re over two weeks into 2025 and experimenting with different ways of keeping track of what is going on in the German Day-Ahead Auction and Intra-Day markets with publicly published data. Our aim is to build familiarity, intuition, a coherent framework for analysis. Given the small amount of data published openly and the restrictions involved, we must be parsimonious in the use of data.

Economy in the use of assumptions in reasoning or explaining; esp. in law of parsimony noun (also principle of parsimony) the principle that no more entities, causes, or forces than necessary should be invoked in explaining a set of facts or observations (cf. Occam's razor n.).

Example: The law of Parcimony, which forbids, without necessity, the multiplication of entities, powers, principles, or causes; above all, the postulation of an unknown force, where a known impotence can account for the effect. W. Hamilton, Lectures on Metaphysics (1859) vol. II. xxxiv. 395

Oxford English Dictionary, s.v. “parsimony (n.), sense 3,” June 2024, https://doi.org/10.1093/OED/9331716173.

This week we’re going to be inspired by a plot from Deutsche Bank’s “house view” on pound weakness and gilt yields after the fall in sterling and gilts last week. The plot was featured and developed further by FTAlphaville’s team to put market movements into perspective. The scatter plot showed the “Change in 10yr gilt vs average of change in US Treasuries and Bunds, compared with change in trade-weighted GBP.”

I enjoyed FTAlphaville’s development of Deutsche Bank’s plot because of the connection it made between market events and a wider perspective. You could filter the graph to look at relative sterling/gilt movements by incumbent prime minister: nice idea, good conversation piece.