The Burger Doctrine: Electro-State Empiricism

A short introduction.

When you go through the talks, charts, and datasets produced in and around the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) a distinctive analytical perspective emerges. This post proposes calling this perspective the Burger Doctrine. Let’s define it and then work through some of the angles.

Core Proposition

To understand an electrified power system, analysis must begin with observed system behaviour at operational time resolution, not with abstract scenarios, averages, or optimisation targets.

What the Doctrine Rejects

• Assuming markets alone can manage all risk classes

• Conflating political targets with physical feasibility

• Reading the system primarily through annual balances

• Treating the merit order as a clean, explanatory mechanism

• Explaining outcomes without reference to time and grid constraints

If an analysis ignores quarter-hour dynamics, grid bottlenecks, or coordination layers, it is incomplete.

What the Doctrine Insists On

1. Operational Time Resolution Is Decisive
   System stress, scarcity, surplus, and coordination failure emerge at the quarter-hour level, not in yearly or even daily averages.

2. Empirical Observation Precedes Theory
   The system must be read as it behaves in real time, before theoretical explanations are applied.

3. Energy Abundance Shifts Scarcity to Coordination
   In high-renewable systems, the binding constraints are no longer energy volumes but timing, location, and flexibility.

4. Markets Are Powerful but Bounded
   Energy-only markets coordinate normal and stressed operation, but existential tail risks are handled through non-market mechanisms (redispatch, reserves).