On super-negative balancing prices

mFRR- at the floor. Belgium to Germany, via France?

This post is about trying to understand the ‘super negative balancing prices’ in Belgium over Easter. How far can we get with open data? Also, what justifies a mFRR bid at the floor? Does it need justification? I’m currently on the way to Shanghai and completing this before boarding. Posts may appear at irregular intervals for the next couple of weeks: we have a second post on Czechia coming up and I’ve also been thinking about ‘hype’ as a theme given the SpaceX IPO news.

On 6 April 2026, Easter Monday, Belgian imbalance prices hit the regulatory floor of -15,000 EUR/MWh for five consecutive quarter-hours, from 13:45 to 15:00 CEST.

Let’s try to trace the chain as far as public data allow: Belgian imbalance settlement, the mFRR scheduled-down component, MARI, German downward mFRR, and the possible French/RTE balancing layer that ordinary border flows do not show.

Then it’s worth reflection on the economic rationale for extremely negative bids. If a downward mFRR bid was accepted at -15,000 EUR/MWh, what kind of asset constraint, portfolio exposure or market-design feature could justify it?