Labour Day Preview
0% cloud cover, strong shortwave radiation, mild temperatures, low wind, and no precipitation on a public holiday = ?
A lot of noise about what tomorrow is shaping up to be, here’s our look-ahead snapshot add-on to yesterday’s update. As ever, let me know any comments.
The day-ahead average is EUR -2.08/MWh, but that’s probably the least interesting number here. The DA low is EUR -499.99/MWh, the high is EUR 232.99/MWh, for a high-low spread at EUR 732.98/MWh. The 12-16 block averages roughly EUR -374.61/MWh. By 16-20, the curve has recovered to about EUR 56.51/MWh.
1 May is not just low on one dimension. Action in several tails at once from a low DA centre: deep DA lower tail, very wide DA spread, high FCR, high aFRR- and high mFRR- around the same midday/downward-flexibility window. Did I hear someone say the FCR action is over?
Open-Meteo shows 0% cloud cover, shortwave radiation around 24.86 kWh/m2, low wind with max wind speed around 13.5 km/h, and no precipitation. Minimal evening ramp: this is high-sun, holiday-load shape.
FCR 12-16 is EUR 442.90/MW/4h. aFRR- 12-16 is at an average of EUR 146.72/MW/h, with the last accepted bid at EUR 277.23/MW/h. Mind the widening gap. mFRR- 12-16 is also high at EUR 229.81/MW/h, while positive evening reserve is as muted as you’d expect: aFRR+ 16-20 at EUR 10.31/MW/h.
And it’s still early in the year.