European Power
Hungary and Romania need electricity. Poland is tightening. France still has a surplus. The grid between them is showing where Europe’s geographical flexibility runs out.
I must warn you that this post is written in the spirit of European integration, under the influence of some good Pomerol and Limoncello. Some Unicum might help.
I’m working on a post on BESS investment decisions: on how merchant upside becomes a toll, toll leads to debt, delays eat into option value, and why IRR can illuminate an investment just as easily as it can obscure it.
But before we get there I think we should spend some time on the delicate balance of power in Europe today. The ultimate question is about where you would put a BESS if your objective was to maximise its benefit for the European electricity grid in a situation of nuclear fragility…
Last time, we went with the flow, and we ended up with a list of ‘obscure’ (at least to me) grid constraints: Nošovice–Varín. Obersielach. Mikułowa PST1. Altheim–St Peter.
Do any of these mean something to you? I find myself wanting to learn more about the pinch-points.
The situation keeps developing. Water, water, water.
If water is not piled up deep enough, it won't have the strength to bear up a big boat. Pour a cup of water into a hollow in the floor and bits of trash will sail on it like boats. But set the cup there and it will stick fast, for the water is too shallow and the boat too large…
From Burton Watson’s translation of the Zhuangzi
The Danube remains exceptionally low. Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant is producing only a fraction of its normal output. Romania has already lost one Cernavodă reactor and is carrying out extraordinary work in the river to keep water reaching the second.
Poland is becoming a large importer during some of the most expensive evening intervals. (Reuters) And France, for now, has power.
A problem that is being solved… under the radar, though not in the news.
For the quarter-hour beginning at 19:45 on 4 August, Slovenia cleared €407.16/MWh above Germany: €710.73/MWh versus €303.57/MWh. France, meanwhile, was at €184.47/MWh.
At 17:30 on 5 August, France, Belgium and the Netherlands clear at €74.95/MWh. Germany is €87.47. Hungary is €328.98, Romania €350.28, Croatia €431.98 and Slovenia €473.61.
Is European power disintegrating?
The Netherlands schedules 3.29 GW to Germany, western Denmark 2.46 GW and France 2.00 GW. Germany, itself a 3.72 GW net importer, schedules 1.83 GW onwards to Austria. Austria sends 1.37 GW towards Hungary. Hungary is still importing 2.35 GW. Romania imports 1.54 GW.
No, not disintegrating. A continental rearrangement of power.
