Curve, Basis, Battery.
Germany, Czechia, CAISO: curve, basis, battery.
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Germany’s curve continues its evolution. From 22 June to 7 July, the 13:00-to-20:00 move averaged 232 EUR/MWh, about 103 EUR/MWh wider than the 2023-25 same-date median.
Negative midday prices and evening scarcity are two sides of the same solar, wind and residual-load regime. That’s the obvious part. The shifts and changes are interesting.
Czechia gives a basis-risk picture: prices move with Germany until local stack, exports and border conditions make the CZ-DE spread move.
CAISO gives a crisp view of battery potential: charge the belly, discharge from the neck. Recent peaks!
At the end of a working day in Germany the most important question: where can we get some energy back?
Since May, the German market has been all about the curve geometry. Solar creates the midday trough. Wind levels determine how much residual load is left later. Borders, reserves and intraday settlement bridge the hours.
Forecast errors and aFRR, negative day-ahead and neighbours, low-wind evenings... the plot keeps developing, like your favourite series. (It’s Pantheon at the moment, if you must know. Robert Wright recommends it also.)
But we’re moving beyond our German comfort zone and towards a global view. A global market update is the goal. We get there step by step. Apart from Germany we have some Czech and CAISO data merrily updating in our evolving energy-machine.
Let’s try this: Germany gives the curve, Czechia tests the basis, CAISO shows the storage response: that’s the story we’ll try to sell today.
Germany: Starter-for-Ten or Something to ‘Hate’?
When you’re not sure about your first draft, it helps to qualify it as a work in progress. “Starter-for-Ten” is my favourite (thank you Simon, I will always be grateful), but Something-to-Hate is good too. Channelled well, ‘hate’ of some thing gets the juices flowing nicely.
